Tuesday, March 25, 2008

I thought this was worth looking at. Even though the points where GLD touch the lower trendline are awfully far apart, yielding them less predictive, I wanted to share this one-year chart since so many people have only been focusing on the extreme short-term plummet from 1000+ to 920.













SPY still seems poised for a pullback as it remains a little overbought - as do all major indexes. Plus, the S&P alone is up something like 6% over last several trading sessions so some pullback would be expected.

The market in general; however, has been doing an amazing job of brushing off extremely negative news - which is bullish at least for the short-term. Once we get that pullback, I would strongly consider rolling-up or exiting any short positions that are in reach of the underlying. The market has shifted and is presenting more upside risk in the short-term.

To further that thought, I think it is okay, again hopefully on a pullback, to sell some April Put Credit Spreads below 125 (sell at 130 if you're feeling lucky). Remember to use a trade calculator to see which index gives you the best premium. You may find that for the same delta, same standard deviation, same dollars risked, etc. that a much larger premium can be had for selling IWM over SPY, or DIA, for example. Finally, the last few weeks have forced us to set common sense and rationale aside - so just try to go with the market - even when you know you're right.

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