The bulls had a nice day today but I'm not feeling too optimistic...not after last week's breakdown. It seems like oil will continue to dictate market sentiment and direction. Be aware of the following economic stats this week:
| Date | Time (ET) | Statistic |
| 27-May | 10:00 AM | Consumer Confidence |
| 27-May | 10:00 AM | New Home Sales |
| 28-May | 8:30 AM | Durable Orders |
| 28-May | 10:30 AM | Crude Inventories |
| 29-May | 8:30 AM | Chain Deflator-Prel. |
| 29-May | 8:30 AM | GDP-Prel. |
| 29-May | 8:30 AM | Initial Claims |
| 29-May | 10:30 AM | Crude Inventories |
| 30-May | 8:30 AM | Personal Income |
| 30-May | 8:30 AM | Personal Spending |
| 30-May | 8:30 AM | PCE Core Inflation |
| 30-May | 9:45 AM | Chicago PMI |
| 30-May | 10:00 AM | Mich Sentiment-Rev. |
Pure speculation: In the very short-term I think it's reasonable for oil to pullback a little further and for SPY to climb back to 140 (or even low 140s). If any of this transpires I will be looking to buy Puts or Bear Put Spreads (aka: debit spreads) because I think more weakness is ahead and any pullback in oil will be temporary. I will also look at selling OTM Call Credit Spreads above significant levels of overhead resistance. Of course the market (SPY) could go straight to 132 without any more bounce so be cautious. Here are a few setups to note (click on company name or symbol to launch graph):
UnitedHealth Group (UNH) - bearish - may be on its way back down.
Apple (AAPL) - bullish - like AAPL to the upside. Use yesterday's low or the trendline as a tight stop.
Transocean (RIG) - bullish - use a very tight stop (see trendline) as the drillers have been getting punished.
Capital One (COF) - bearish - anxiously awaiting this lower trendline to be breached. Also, the fundamentals (i.e. tons of bad debt on the books) support a lower price.
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