Thursday, August 28, 2008

Bullish on USD?

If you believe the recent run in US Dollars is sustainable and don't feel like you've completely missed the move, consider the following strategy to profit from it: sell credit spreads... in gold.

Dollars move inverse to gold. And while there's certainly no perfect correlation there, the basic relationship is fundamentally sound. The next two graphs illustrate this:


US Dollars (DXY)


GOLD (GLD)
There has clearly been a breakdown in the gold rush. The question is whether it'll stay broke.

I think a low risk way to profit from this is to sell the 85/89 Sep GLD Call Spread (aka Bear Call Spread) for a $600 credit - with a stop above 85.65. Here's what the trade calc looks like:


Theoretically you're risking $3,400 to make $600 but in actuality, your intelligent STOP would limit your risk to a fraction of that.

So why not just sell Bull Put Spreads (credit spread: bullish) or buy Bull Call Spreads (debit spread: bullish) on DXY? For one, options don't trade on DXY. Also, the GLD charts looks a lot nicer in terms of support/resistance.


Have a great Labor Day weekend.


OptionSpot

No comments: