Wednesday, October 8, 2008

800 lb gorilla in the room

If I step back and look at the S&P, the next 'obvious' target appears to be 800.

In the near-term, a bear market rally is highly anticipated and likely but in the longish-term, heading down to 800 seems like the path of least resistance, yet hopefully it will act as support.








In the interim, I see two options.

1) Buy some Calls with the inevitable (eventual) bounce and hope that there is no volatility crush (when IV drops in dramatic fashion along with the value of your options) and/or in the very short-term, hope that you can sell your overpriced calls for more than you overpaid for them.

2) Start making a list of optionable stocks that bounce too much and thus setup a great Put buying opportunity. Hopefully at this future time the options market will start to resemble normal.

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