Had an opportunity to pick up an extra 4% on XLF this morning but instead chose to get stopped out for an even trade (actually gained $0.01/share). Unfortunately I was unable to negotiate the 9.37% swing today, from the low (8.54) to the high (9.34) - much of which took place in the span of an hour.
I still like XLF to the downside but do believe that people will start, all else equal, buying up C and BAC, for example, just because they are perceived to be 'cheap' at these levels. Plus, who knows when the next stupid announcement comes out about buying toxic assets or manipulating accounting standards. I may look to play overbought opportunities in financials via GS (getting tired), or if XLF/UYG makes a respectable bounce and/or the news quiets down.
With regards to the overall market, 1Option summed it up nicely:
A trading range from SPY 80 - 92 has been established. There is choppy trading around the midpoint. Buyers are willing to pull out their wallets when the market reaches the low-end of the range. However, they are not willing to chase stocks and they do not feel that they will miss the next big rally. Sellers know that they have the long-term trend in their favor and the bad news keeps on coming. They are very comfortable selling stocks at the upper end of the range. Consequently, the market will continue to trade in this range until new information forces a breakout or a breakdown.
SPY
Thursday, February 5, 2009
Trading Range
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