Financials have been responsible for the bulk of this bear market rally (SPY currently sitting at a 19% return in 9 days). Fundamentally I don't feel that anything has improved, at least with regards to unemployment, housing, growth, earnings, inflation, etc. And even though the market is a leading indicator, I don't see any of these improving in the next 6 months either.
You might think that today was a positive - i.e. printing another $1,000,000,000,000 via injecting liquidity into the economy, via buying up Ts. And in the short term it clearly was positive for the market (granted, there was a fair share of short covering today). But there is nothing positive about an economy in distress adding massive inflation and debt to its list of problems. To be fair though, they have run out of ideas.
Anyhoo, I wanted to delve a little deeper into this financial stock driven rally (since March 6th, the most recent 'bottom').
In the last 9 days the following stocks have returned the following % (approx):
C 217%
BAC 164%
MET 124%
WFC 120%
USB 96%
JPM 81%
AXP 45%
GS 44%
*XLF 60%
That's great! Although smells a bit of short covering and dumb money chasing and doesn't seem sustainable but who cares!
I remain bearish but I won't be stubborn. This market is absolutely capable of going to SPY 105 and I have to be prepared for that. If necessary I will definitely take on some long positions but I don't think it's time yet. Mainly because:
*SPY hasn't conquered this level of price resistance
*Or its 50 day EMA
*Conditions remain insanely overbought.
SPY
Wednesday, March 18, 2009
Printing Money
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