Thursday, April 2, 2009

Interesting Close

The major indexes easily broke out of their range/channel today; however, where they closed was rather interesting. They closed on some much needed profit taking but more importantly, they closed right at, and in most cases beneath the upper bound of their range/channel (click on charts below).
NOTE: if you're using stops by placing them on the other side of resistance, for example, give yourself some breathing room - trendlines were meant to be drawn with a crayon.

It is becoming increasingly difficult to be bearish after the last 18 trading days - it almost reeks of stubbornness. But unfortunately, it's difficult to check my common sense at the door when analyzing this market.
NOTE: my time frame is an intermediate one and I don't trade counter-trend rallies (for no reason other than I haven't found a consistently profitable method of doing so).

We are overbought, resistance in the 830-870 range is going to get worse, and I'm still not convinced that the economy is recovering when unemployment numbers keep blowing estimates out of the water every month. Also, the financials (XLF) sold off ever since their gap up this morning, despite CNBC telling you that they were the ones 'leading the rally'. Dipshits.

Must Reads:
Debt-to-GDP (check out the debt tab!)
Large Traders Sell Into Strength
Best 2 Day Starts to a Quarter

SPY


QQQQ


GS

I'm still holding APR 100 Puts on GS. If it closes above 115, I will likely get out but I'll deal with that later.

No comments: