Thursday, April 23, 2009

Limbo

Currently, I view 875 as a top and will rely on the 60 min charts below for further clues. While the market looks to be rounding/topping off, it could just be consolidating. Dip buyers are certainly present. While I continue to favor the downside I must keep an open mind. There can be a fine line between conviction and inflexibility.

Regrettably, the majority of my trading systems remain in limbo. I have developed several methods of selling strength in bear markets and buying weakness in bull markets. I have not developed consistently profitable methods of buying weakness in bear markets, so I don't do it. We have been in 'stuck' in overbought territory (based on my indicators) since March 12th so I haven't been getting any new signals. This can happen in bear market rallies and the consolidation period that follows but it is frustrating to either not trade or rely on discretionary price pattern trading (which is more exciting but I find it more difficult). Lately I'm glad I don't have to trade with these choppy conditions (see first chart).

SPY & ES


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