Asset Classes

A review of what the major asset classes are doing (S&P, dollars, bonds, and commodities) and some follow-ups to a couple of yesterday's charts:
SPY - I don't put a ton of stock into short-term fibs; however, today retraced exactly 50% from yesterday's high - we will see if this ends up being significant.


UUP


TLT


DBC


DBA - setting up...


XOM - heading lower.


OIH low-risk entry.

Are commodities bursting or pulling back?

There's been more talk recently about the commodities 'bubble' bursting. This chart (DBC - commodity ETF) would suggest there might be a leak in the bubble but the rounded top doesn't suggest that any bursting is going on. This is a chart of DBC and it's components can be seen below.

Year-to-date, DBC has done well bouncing off of its 50 day moving average, which may present a good entry point - needless to say it's back down near it's 50 day MA. If you use moving average as an entry point make sure to place a stop under said MA. If this level is breached (your reason for entering the trade) then you should exit the trade immediately.

Keep in mind that this is primarily a commentary on the chart - there are a lot of fundamentals that need to be considered. A large portion of DBC is made up of gold and oil so if your outlook on these is bleak, steer clear. Personally, I don't like the outlook on gold and nobody can predict oil. 'Expert' estimates still range between $80-$140 / barrel. Bottom line, if you choose to play DBC wait to see if it bounces off the MA, not before.
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DBC - TOP 10 HOLDINGS ( 107.81% OF TOTAL ASSETS)

Company Symbol % Assets Corn (Fut) N/A 13.23 Crude Oil (Fut) N/A 35.03 Gold 100 (Fut) N/A 10.33 Heating Oil (Fut) N/A 20.51 Lme Alum (Fut) N/A 13.4 Lme Alum (Fut) N/A 0.35 Wheat (Fut) N/A 14.96

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In terms of the broad market, keep this on the radar.
Current Put/Call Ratio: