Tech Tock, Tech Tock

Is it finally time for tech to take a breather? After hours traders appear rather indignant that Intel won't offer any Q2 guidance. Ah but alas, Obama Von Spendthrift and his tax evading cronies did not give the chip-makers permission to cook their books...only the banks. This lack of guidance may become popular during earnings.
Intel was being looked to for reassurance that the economy was in fact healthier than ever - big surprise. If you believe the tide is turning, at least temporarily, take a look at AAPL and GOOG, who conveniently happen to be up against resistance (which will allow for a low risk entry).
AAPL

GOOG


I will remain patient and see how this week's earnings go. The last 27 days have, for good reason, made me more cautious than usual. The short term trend is still up but it is clear that overhead resistance is taking its toll due to the rounding/topping shape of the SPY. It doesn't mean we don't go higher but it may indicate it's finally time for that pullback.
SPY


Here are two short suggestions:
XLU

XLB

Unfortunately, the options on these kind of suck but fortunately, they are cheap enough to short outright.

MA | AKS | GOOG | SKF

Three caught my eye today (MA, AKS, GOOG).
MA looks like it would be much more comfortable at 120


AKS short at 7.50


GOOG possible bounce before further breakdown



Though close, SKF has not yet trigged a short signal.

Setups

The following are several low risk setups worth considering for a short-term trade:

AKS


TXN


GLW


GNK


STX


RS


TIE


AAPL


PG


LLL


GOOG


BIDU

Hindsight trade of the week

Best hindsight trade of the week goes to SKF.


















VIX (click to view) has never reached an intraday high of almost 65!

GM (click to view) has never dropped 31% in a day!

XOM has never dropped $9 in a day!


The market is poised for its worst week in history!
This fiasco will present one of the best opportunities in history but plan on some more downside first.
Late day selling has been popular as people are nervous to hold overnight; therefore, holding over the weekend likely won't be too popular either - so don't be shocked to see another down day. Not to mention (as per Homer Simpson) Officer Coo-Coo Bananas will be talking tomorrow at 10am and anytime he, Paulson, or Bernanke, have opened their mouth lately, the market drops.

That BIG BOUNCE might have to wait till next week.


Some Other Thoughts...

CVD

JPM



















AMZN



















GOOG

Stocks above their 50 day MA

This chart shows the % of S&P 500 stocks above their 50 day MA.

A bounce is coming. It should have come today and it should come tomorrow - the problem is that this is hard to time under normal market conditions.

Note: it will be interesting to see if the short-sale ban actually gets lifted tomorrow and the effect it will have.
I would like it to get lifted because I think it will slightly help reign in option prices and bid/ask spreads.

Below are a few stocks to keep on the watchlist. You'll have to excuse the long-term charts but when so many securities are making global lows, it's necessary to zoom out to gain some relative perspective.


AAPL
AMZN
GOOG
JNJ
MA
RIMM
OXY
CHK

Recap

Review of recent recommendations/predictions: (click on symbol for chart)
Green = profitable
Red = lost a small pittance thanks to using my trendline as your tight stop.

FLS - 07/10 - today set up a perfect entry - touched underside of trendline - still too early
USO - 07/08 - recommended calls at 110; currently at 117.
BIDU - 07/08 - recommended puts at 334; currently at 305.
GS - 06/26 - recommended puts 179-183; currently at 162.
CME - 06/26 - recommended puts at 406; currently 306. Probably the best call ever made by anyone at anytime....ever.
ICE - 06/26 - recommended puts at 122; currently at 88.
GLD - 06/26 - recommended calls at 91; currently 95.
MA - 06/26 - recommended puts at 275; currently at 257.
POT - 06/27 - recommended calls at 219; stopped out at 215.
AAPL - 06/26 - called for AAPL to go to 160; reversed at 164; currently 173. Still might be in a downward channel but either way my timing was stupid to make the call.
GOOG - 06/26 - recommended puts at 529; stopped out at 554. Still like puts. Still like 5hundo.
GNK - 06/26 - recommended puts at 64; stopped out at 65. Still like puts. Still like 50.

Not a bad couple of weeks - especially when you consider the magnitude of some of these winners.

Use caution ahead of earnings.
Bearish: VIX has not yet spiked and no capitulation low
Bullish: oversold going into earnings - if worst case scenario (should already be cooked in to share price given the recent decline) isn't realized, might see a rally.

OptionSpot

Bearish On Goldman

GS. 170 seems like the next obvious target but I like it all the way down to 160. I don't like entering any trade that isn't elbows-to-assholes against its trendline, as tempting as it is, so I will try to show some patience here. Hopefully we see some sort of one day bounce or short-covering rally back to GS 180. This is just one example of a good looking chart but a lot of things broke down or continued to break down today. Ideally, many of these will come back up to the underside of their pre-existing support (now resistance) line, to provide a lot of low-risk setups.
Here are a few facts (in progress):
AAPL 160
GOOG 500
MA 260
GNK 50
CME 385
ICE 115
GLD brokeout
FLR brokedown
SOHU brokedown
POT pulled back to support

Trading for a Living
When the slope of MACD-Histogram moves in the same direction as prices, the trend is safe. When the slope of MACD-Histogram moves in a direction opposite to that of prices, the health of the trend is questioned. It is best to trade in the direction of the slope of MACD-Histogram because it shows whether bulls or bears dominate the market.

The slope of MACD-Histogram is more important than its position above or below the centerline. The best sell signals are given when MACD-Histogram is above its centerline but its slope turns down, showing that bulls have become exhausted. The best buy signals occur when MACD-Histogram is below its centerline but its slope turns up, showing that bears have become exhausted.

late afternoon sell-off

With the way the markets sold off this afternoon and with some less than impressive earnings after the bell, I would certainly expect tomorrow to be a down day. This 'oversold bounce' for that matter, may be shorter than expected. If not, I still don't expect it to last too long. All of the major indices continue to point downward.



























ACI















AAPL













CME















ICE
















CELG












GOOG















MA
















RIMM














SOHU















POT
















FLR














GLD














UNG














GNK









.
.

Shippers

If you happened to miss GNK (click to view) when it broke it's neckline on June 9th, you may have another chance. Often, after a H&S pattern has been validated, a retracement back to the neckline can provide a low-risk shorting opportunity. In this case, entry at current levels, with a stop above 64.50 would provide such an entry.

Here's a look at the competition to get an idea of the health of the sector.
DRYS
EGLE
EXM



Create alerts for the following:
GOOG - go with the direction of the breakout
CVD - short on a close below 78.50
PG - short on a close below 64.72
ADBE - short on a close below 40.51

I'll try to find some longs to balance this out but most of my charts are pointing down in the short-term .

Trading for a Living
When the slope of MACD-Histogram moves in the same direction as prices, the trend is safe. When the slope of MACD-Histogram moves in a direction opposite to that of prices, the health of the trend is questioned. It is best to trade in the direction of the slope of MACD-Histogram because it shows whether bulls or bears dominate the market. The slope of MACD-Histogram is more important than its position above or below the centerline. The best sell signals are given when MACDHistogram is above its centerline but its slope turns down, showing that bulls have become exhausted. The best buy signals occur when MACD-Histogram is below its centerline but its slope turns up, showing that bears have become exhausted.
.
.
.

Patience

Fortunately I have the luxury of not having to be in the market every day...because most of the charts I'm coming across look like shit.

Remember, Chuck Norris doesn't sleep..... he waits.

Here are a few thoughts that should be self explanatory:

AKS

CELG

COF

FTK

GNK

GOOG

NMX

RIG

SMH

USO

VIX

X

SPY



Trading for a Living
A trendline is not a glass floor under the market - one crack and it is
gone. It is more like a fence that bulls or bears can lean on. They can even
violate it a bit without toppling it, the way animals shake a fence. A trendline
break is valid only if prices close on the other side of a trendline.

DIA | SPY | QQQQ

After all the break-downs that have occurred over the last couple weeks, now seems like a good time take a step back and look at the big picture.

Major Indicies Only:

DIA: Best looking chart of the bunch. Everyone is watching this trendline and it will likely set the stage for a large rally - even if it's a short-lived one.

SPY: Things certainly look a little more obvious with hindsight on our side - such as the retracement back to it's long-term trend line before immediately being rejected. It reminds me GOOG ....and probably a thousand others. I have now committed this pattern to memory.

QQQQ: Similar to DIA.


I leave you with this; borrowed from a book that I'm currently reading (even though it was published in 1993):
Trading for a Living: Psychology, Trading Tactics, Money Management

The market does not know you exist. You can do nothing to influence it.

You can only control your behavior.

The ocean does not care about your welfare, but it has no wish to hurt you

either. You may feel joy on a sunny day, when a gentle wind pushes your

sailboat where you want it to go. You may feel panic on a stormy day when

the ocean pushes your boat toward the rocks. Your feelings about the ocean

exist only in your mind. They threaten your survival when you let your feelings

rather than intellect control your behavior.

A sailor cannot control the ocean, but he can control himself. He studies

currents and weather patterns. He learns safe sailing techniques and gains

experience. He knows when to sail and when to stay in the harbor. A successful

sailor uses his intelligence.

An ocean can be useful-you can fish in it and use its surface to get to

other islands. An ocean can be dangerous-you can drown in it. The more

rational your approach, the more likely you are to get what you want. When

you act out your emotions, you cannot focus on the reality of the ocean.

A trader has to study trends and reversals in the market the way a sailor

studies the ocean. He must trade on a small scale while learning to handle

himself in the market. You can never control the market but you can learn to

control yourself.