What I'm more interested in...

On a day when the market climbs 11%, I'm a lot more interested in the following:

1) Stocks that couldn't go higher on an 11% up day - (i.e. Goldman Sachs rose < 1%, while XLF rose almost 16%)

2) Stocks that moved more than 11%, after accounting for their respective beta - (i.e. MON has a beta of 1.17 but climbed 17% today)

Other overreactions may include SRS, SKF, and FXP (even though these are ultra shorts, they are down between 25%-35%)

I would like to see several follow through days to bring all stocks back to levels that make sense to get short at again.

For example, it would be very cooperative for AMZN to get back to the low/mid 60s for a great short setup...

Hindsight trade of the week

Best hindsight trade of the week goes to SKF.


















VIX (click to view) has never reached an intraday high of almost 65!

GM (click to view) has never dropped 31% in a day!

XOM has never dropped $9 in a day!


The market is poised for its worst week in history!
This fiasco will present one of the best opportunities in history but plan on some more downside first.
Late day selling has been popular as people are nervous to hold overnight; therefore, holding over the weekend likely won't be too popular either - so don't be shocked to see another down day. Not to mention (as per Homer Simpson) Officer Coo-Coo Bananas will be talking tomorrow at 10am and anytime he, Paulson, or Bernanke, have opened their mouth lately, the market drops.

That BIG BOUNCE might have to wait till next week.


Some Other Thoughts...

CVD

JPM



















AMZN



















GOOG

Stocks above their 50 day MA

This chart shows the % of S&P 500 stocks above their 50 day MA.

A bounce is coming. It should have come today and it should come tomorrow - the problem is that this is hard to time under normal market conditions.

Note: it will be interesting to see if the short-sale ban actually gets lifted tomorrow and the effect it will have.
I would like it to get lifted because I think it will slightly help reign in option prices and bid/ask spreads.

Below are a few stocks to keep on the watchlist. You'll have to excuse the long-term charts but when so many securities are making global lows, it's necessary to zoom out to gain some relative perspective.


AAPL
AMZN
GOOG
JNJ
MA
RIMM
OXY
CHK

You serious, Clark?

QQQQ

DOWNLOAD National Lampoon MP3 HERE


Congress really shit the bed today. It is a fact that many of these shaved congressional apes are too stupid to understand what they're even voting on though so you can't be too surprised. READ THIS

Please remember this come election time!

I can't imagine what the market would have done today had the no-short-sale rule not been in place.

Attached are some stocks to watch.

Everything continues to break down but don't be surprised for a huge move up should congress decide to do something else unexpected later this week. If you must trade, I recommend limiting your strategies to strangles, possibly straddles, and OTM Puts (only on a bounce, not after the market just puked up 8.79%).

Too far, too fast.

Be aware of earnings announcements and volatility - the following are based on charts only.

SHORTS:
In most cases these are stocks that are due for a pullback or have broken support.
LVS (this was my favorite until they talked about it on CNBC but nonetheless)
WYNN
CME
FDX
XLE
MA
NMX


LONGS:
In most cases these are stocks that have been beaten down too much too fast (i.e. UNG) or are presenting a low-risk entry (i.e. AMZN) at support
UNG
AMZN
DBA
FXI