CME with a stop above 311

I've been suspiciously accurate about CME recently; however, instead of declaring victory and hunting for another victim, I shall give CME one more chance to dethrone me.

I like CME to the downside (after the open) with a stop above 311.



















Remember to vote tomorrow..... for either Dumb or Dumber. It blows my mind that we've been put in a position where these are the best candidates that the Republican/Democrat parties could scrape together.

BNI, CME, BBH, DNA

For the most part, to short at these levels would be irresponsible...unless you can do so with little risk. For two short-term, low-risk setups I still like the following:

BNI resistance at 85/86




















CME short below 310




















I'm not in love with biotechs here either.
DNA


















BBH



















Longer term (Q4) some of the commodity stocks have room to run - Ag, Steel, Coal.

Consider RATIO SPREADS once you understand the risk.

Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)

CME is a chart to keep on the radar; not necessarily to trade (since CME options suck) but rather to learn from - as you should be doing with everything in the market right now - learning, not trading.

That said, if risk is something you need in your life, enter a buy stop below 310 with some OTM CME Puts, with a short-term target of 280 and an intermediate-term target of 240.

Weekend Watchlist

Click on symbol to view chart.

X - broke long-term support; short entry would be on a retracement back to the underside of old support

POT - same as above.

OIH - same as above.

GNK - same as above.

BIDU - downtrend

XLY - downtrend; reaching resistance

CME - short if closes below horizontal support line

ICE - short if closes below horizontal support line


MA - establishing a downtrend

Watchist 09-05-08

Watchist 09-05-08

QQQQ
LM
GS
FDX
BIDU
RIMM
MA
CME
AAPL

QQQQ

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.
.

Too far, too fast.

Be aware of earnings announcements and volatility - the following are based on charts only.

SHORTS:
In most cases these are stocks that are due for a pullback or have broken support.
LVS (this was my favorite until they talked about it on CNBC but nonetheless)
WYNN
CME
FDX
XLE
MA
NMX


LONGS:
In most cases these are stocks that have been beaten down too much too fast (i.e. UNG) or are presenting a low-risk entry (i.e. AMZN) at support
UNG
AMZN
DBA
FXI

Recap

Review of recent recommendations/predictions: (click on symbol for chart)
Green = profitable
Red = lost a small pittance thanks to using my trendline as your tight stop.

FLS - 07/10 - today set up a perfect entry - touched underside of trendline - still too early
USO - 07/08 - recommended calls at 110; currently at 117.
BIDU - 07/08 - recommended puts at 334; currently at 305.
GS - 06/26 - recommended puts 179-183; currently at 162.
CME - 06/26 - recommended puts at 406; currently 306. Probably the best call ever made by anyone at anytime....ever.
ICE - 06/26 - recommended puts at 122; currently at 88.
GLD - 06/26 - recommended calls at 91; currently 95.
MA - 06/26 - recommended puts at 275; currently at 257.
POT - 06/27 - recommended calls at 219; stopped out at 215.
AAPL - 06/26 - called for AAPL to go to 160; reversed at 164; currently 173. Still might be in a downward channel but either way my timing was stupid to make the call.
GOOG - 06/26 - recommended puts at 529; stopped out at 554. Still like puts. Still like 5hundo.
GNK - 06/26 - recommended puts at 64; stopped out at 65. Still like puts. Still like 50.

Not a bad couple of weeks - especially when you consider the magnitude of some of these winners.

Use caution ahead of earnings.
Bearish: VIX has not yet spiked and no capitulation low
Bullish: oversold going into earnings - if worst case scenario (should already be cooked in to share price given the recent decline) isn't realized, might see a rally.

OptionSpot

Taking it

A lot of stocks rolled over and broke support today...and from sectors you might not expect (ag, steel, coal, energy, etc). Hopefully none of these moves ruined your weekend plans and you'll be able to find a way to profit from them. I will likely sit tomorrow out in protest of this obnoxiously choppy market but I am seeing a lot of nice setups for next week.


Steel and Coal stocks all took in on the chin while breaking through significant levels of support
--> X, AKS, ACI, BTU


Possible longs (as always use tight stops)
--> RIG (yes, this is the whole list)


Possible shorts (same)
--> ICE, GNK, AA, POT, MON, MOS, UNP (...finally UNP)


Watchlist (these may yet require a bounce or a pullback before taking action)
--> MA, VIX, CME, NMX


Have a great July 4th weekend! With this year's undisclosed destination, I will see if I can snap another award winning photograph - just like the one I took last year: Click HERE to see it.

If I ever get tired of raping and pillaging the options market maybe I can just fall back on my photography skillz.

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OptionSpot

Bearish On Goldman

GS. 170 seems like the next obvious target but I like it all the way down to 160. I don't like entering any trade that isn't elbows-to-assholes against its trendline, as tempting as it is, so I will try to show some patience here. Hopefully we see some sort of one day bounce or short-covering rally back to GS 180. This is just one example of a good looking chart but a lot of things broke down or continued to break down today. Ideally, many of these will come back up to the underside of their pre-existing support (now resistance) line, to provide a lot of low-risk setups.
Here are a few facts (in progress):
AAPL 160
GOOG 500
MA 260
GNK 50
CME 385
ICE 115
GLD brokeout
FLR brokedown
SOHU brokedown
POT pulled back to support

Trading for a Living
When the slope of MACD-Histogram moves in the same direction as prices, the trend is safe. When the slope of MACD-Histogram moves in a direction opposite to that of prices, the health of the trend is questioned. It is best to trade in the direction of the slope of MACD-Histogram because it shows whether bulls or bears dominate the market.

The slope of MACD-Histogram is more important than its position above or below the centerline. The best sell signals are given when MACD-Histogram is above its centerline but its slope turns down, showing that bulls have become exhausted. The best buy signals occur when MACD-Histogram is below its centerline but its slope turns up, showing that bears have become exhausted.