What I'm more interested in...

On a day when the market climbs 11%, I'm a lot more interested in the following:

1) Stocks that couldn't go higher on an 11% up day - (i.e. Goldman Sachs rose < 1%, while XLF rose almost 16%)

2) Stocks that moved more than 11%, after accounting for their respective beta - (i.e. MON has a beta of 1.17 but climbed 17% today)

Other overreactions may include SRS, SKF, and FXP (even though these are ultra shorts, they are down between 25%-35%)

I would like to see several follow through days to bring all stocks back to levels that make sense to get short at again.

For example, it would be very cooperative for AMZN to get back to the low/mid 60s for a great short setup...

Le Resistance

SPY (10 yr)
Notice how the market 'bottomed' in 2002... same pattern appears for '33, '42, '87, etc. The likelihood of a v-bottom here is also highly unlikely so I will play the odds. To understand why this happens, go review market psychology of bottoms, support, resistance, etc. - long story short, there are very good fundamental reason for why and how these patterns are created.




SPY - looking for the underside of this channel to get kissed before heading lower




















BNI - trading range




















MON - gap fill - that was quick




















X - if you're looking for a follow through day, X has some room to run




















XLP - look for 26




















XLB - If XLB has the audacity to climb its sorry ass to 34....




















AAPL - low risk setup developing...




















COST - low risk setup has arrived.

AGU | MON | DBA - bag some ag

Time to bag some ag.

AGU

MON

DBA

Taking it

A lot of stocks rolled over and broke support today...and from sectors you might not expect (ag, steel, coal, energy, etc). Hopefully none of these moves ruined your weekend plans and you'll be able to find a way to profit from them. I will likely sit tomorrow out in protest of this obnoxiously choppy market but I am seeing a lot of nice setups for next week.


Steel and Coal stocks all took in on the chin while breaking through significant levels of support
--> X, AKS, ACI, BTU


Possible longs (as always use tight stops)
--> RIG (yes, this is the whole list)


Possible shorts (same)
--> ICE, GNK, AA, POT, MON, MOS, UNP (...finally UNP)


Watchlist (these may yet require a bounce or a pullback before taking action)
--> MA, VIX, CME, NMX


Have a great July 4th weekend! With this year's undisclosed destination, I will see if I can snap another award winning photograph - just like the one I took last year: Click HERE to see it.

If I ever get tired of raping and pillaging the options market maybe I can just fall back on my photography skillz.

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OptionSpot

FXI | MON | POT | SPY

What a difference a day can make. It's already time to revisit some recently mentioned setups.



FXI: Overbought. Overall, nice looking chart for the longer-term.















MON: Oversold. Monsanto is among a list of stocks that got hammered after reporting good numbers and raising their outlook. All else equal, it is simply presenting an opportunity.













POT: Another example of a stock that just got hammered after reporting good numbers and raising their outlook. The difference here is the enormous amount of volume that traded today - proceed with caution.












SPY: I thought the bulls were going to do it today but the 139/140 resistance continues to hold. I think it will break sooner than later, especially if XLF can string together another couple days like it did today....

FXI | MON | RIMM | POT

The following have been getting a lot of mention, forming some nice setups, and should be on your watchlist:



FXI - Huge breakout on big volume. FXI got as high as 160.90 before ending the day 157.61. Still overbought so be patient. Look for a small pullback and look to go long.







MON - Perhaps taking a breather...before rocketing past 140...









RIMM - has been drifting upward for a while but hasn't been able to breakout yet. It has a very low ADX reading, implying a lack of a trend. It still seems like it's formed a nice base and may be preparing for another leg up.






POT - Big red candle. I don't see any reversal in sight so maybe it will present an opportunity to those of us who missed the last 20 pullbacks.




Keep in mind these are just setups and not your signal for entry. You should have (or will need to develop) some criteria to help you identify your entry signals.