MA | RS | SHLD | GNK | RIG

XLF remains a sell, with an anticipated buy to cover signal coming later this week. The fact that it performed so poorly today while the market ate up 141 pts doesn't suggest to me the threat of an immediate reversal. I imagine that reversal will come only when the inevitably brainless announcement is released in the weeks ahead. That said, if/when it happens, it will be quick and violent. Just the mention of creating a bad bank, last Wednesday, moved XLF against me 12%, from which it just finally recovered. I suspect a further drift lower this week with the help of some less than positive economic releases.
Below are some additional ideas.

MA


RS


SHLD


GNK


RIG

Setups

The following are several low risk setups worth considering for a short-term trade:

AKS


TXN


GLW


GNK


STX


RS


TIE


AAPL


PG


LLL


GOOG


BIDU

Weekend Watchlist

Click on symbol to view chart.

X - broke long-term support; short entry would be on a retracement back to the underside of old support

POT - same as above.

OIH - same as above.

GNK - same as above.

BIDU - downtrend

XLY - downtrend; reaching resistance

CME - short if closes below horizontal support line

ICE - short if closes below horizontal support line


MA - establishing a downtrend

Recap

Review of recent recommendations/predictions: (click on symbol for chart)
Green = profitable
Red = lost a small pittance thanks to using my trendline as your tight stop.

FLS - 07/10 - today set up a perfect entry - touched underside of trendline - still too early
USO - 07/08 - recommended calls at 110; currently at 117.
BIDU - 07/08 - recommended puts at 334; currently at 305.
GS - 06/26 - recommended puts 179-183; currently at 162.
CME - 06/26 - recommended puts at 406; currently 306. Probably the best call ever made by anyone at anytime....ever.
ICE - 06/26 - recommended puts at 122; currently at 88.
GLD - 06/26 - recommended calls at 91; currently 95.
MA - 06/26 - recommended puts at 275; currently at 257.
POT - 06/27 - recommended calls at 219; stopped out at 215.
AAPL - 06/26 - called for AAPL to go to 160; reversed at 164; currently 173. Still might be in a downward channel but either way my timing was stupid to make the call.
GOOG - 06/26 - recommended puts at 529; stopped out at 554. Still like puts. Still like 5hundo.
GNK - 06/26 - recommended puts at 64; stopped out at 65. Still like puts. Still like 50.

Not a bad couple of weeks - especially when you consider the magnitude of some of these winners.

Use caution ahead of earnings.
Bearish: VIX has not yet spiked and no capitulation low
Bullish: oversold going into earnings - if worst case scenario (should already be cooked in to share price given the recent decline) isn't realized, might see a rally.

OptionSpot

Taking it

A lot of stocks rolled over and broke support today...and from sectors you might not expect (ag, steel, coal, energy, etc). Hopefully none of these moves ruined your weekend plans and you'll be able to find a way to profit from them. I will likely sit tomorrow out in protest of this obnoxiously choppy market but I am seeing a lot of nice setups for next week.


Steel and Coal stocks all took in on the chin while breaking through significant levels of support
--> X, AKS, ACI, BTU


Possible longs (as always use tight stops)
--> RIG (yes, this is the whole list)


Possible shorts (same)
--> ICE, GNK, AA, POT, MON, MOS, UNP (...finally UNP)


Watchlist (these may yet require a bounce or a pullback before taking action)
--> MA, VIX, CME, NMX


Have a great July 4th weekend! With this year's undisclosed destination, I will see if I can snap another award winning photograph - just like the one I took last year: Click HERE to see it.

If I ever get tired of raping and pillaging the options market maybe I can just fall back on my photography skillz.

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OptionSpot

Bearish On Goldman

GS. 170 seems like the next obvious target but I like it all the way down to 160. I don't like entering any trade that isn't elbows-to-assholes against its trendline, as tempting as it is, so I will try to show some patience here. Hopefully we see some sort of one day bounce or short-covering rally back to GS 180. This is just one example of a good looking chart but a lot of things broke down or continued to break down today. Ideally, many of these will come back up to the underside of their pre-existing support (now resistance) line, to provide a lot of low-risk setups.
Here are a few facts (in progress):
AAPL 160
GOOG 500
MA 260
GNK 50
CME 385
ICE 115
GLD brokeout
FLR brokedown
SOHU brokedown
POT pulled back to support

Trading for a Living
When the slope of MACD-Histogram moves in the same direction as prices, the trend is safe. When the slope of MACD-Histogram moves in a direction opposite to that of prices, the health of the trend is questioned. It is best to trade in the direction of the slope of MACD-Histogram because it shows whether bulls or bears dominate the market.

The slope of MACD-Histogram is more important than its position above or below the centerline. The best sell signals are given when MACD-Histogram is above its centerline but its slope turns down, showing that bulls have become exhausted. The best buy signals occur when MACD-Histogram is below its centerline but its slope turns up, showing that bears have become exhausted.

late afternoon sell-off

With the way the markets sold off this afternoon and with some less than impressive earnings after the bell, I would certainly expect tomorrow to be a down day. This 'oversold bounce' for that matter, may be shorter than expected. If not, I still don't expect it to last too long. All of the major indices continue to point downward.



























ACI















AAPL













CME















ICE
















CELG












GOOG















MA
















RIMM














SOHU















POT
















FLR














GLD














UNG














GNK









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Shippers

If you happened to miss GNK (click to view) when it broke it's neckline on June 9th, you may have another chance. Often, after a H&S pattern has been validated, a retracement back to the neckline can provide a low-risk shorting opportunity. In this case, entry at current levels, with a stop above 64.50 would provide such an entry.

Here's a look at the competition to get an idea of the health of the sector.
DRYS
EGLE
EXM



Create alerts for the following:
GOOG - go with the direction of the breakout
CVD - short on a close below 78.50
PG - short on a close below 64.72
ADBE - short on a close below 40.51

I'll try to find some longs to balance this out but most of my charts are pointing down in the short-term .

Trading for a Living
When the slope of MACD-Histogram moves in the same direction as prices, the trend is safe. When the slope of MACD-Histogram moves in a direction opposite to that of prices, the health of the trend is questioned. It is best to trade in the direction of the slope of MACD-Histogram because it shows whether bulls or bears dominate the market. The slope of MACD-Histogram is more important than its position above or below the centerline. The best sell signals are given when MACDHistogram is above its centerline but its slope turns down, showing that bulls have become exhausted. The best buy signals occur when MACD-Histogram is below its centerline but its slope turns up, showing that bears have become exhausted.
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Patience

Fortunately I have the luxury of not having to be in the market every day...because most of the charts I'm coming across look like shit.

Remember, Chuck Norris doesn't sleep..... he waits.

Here are a few thoughts that should be self explanatory:

AKS

CELG

COF

FTK

GNK

GOOG

NMX

RIG

SMH

USO

VIX

X

SPY



Trading for a Living
A trendline is not a glass floor under the market - one crack and it is
gone. It is more like a fence that bulls or bears can lean on. They can even
violate it a bit without toppling it, the way animals shake a fence. A trendline
break is valid only if prices close on the other side of a trendline.

AAPL | GNK | NIHD | XOM ... SPY | QQQQ | IWM | DIA

The bulls had a huge technical day today.

Expect a strong finish into the weekend, as today's buying seems anticipatory of Friday's (likely positive) unemployment report. That said, I'm not jumping with both feet on the bullish bandwagon yet.

Speaking of technicals, USO did exactly what my trendline told it to do!








Major Indices (or ETFs thereof):
SPY - not out the woods yet
QQQQ - barely brokeout today
IWM - big breakout
DIA - still pretty ugly

When looking at the 'market' never draw your conclusions by looking at just one index - look at what they are collectively showing you.


Other Thoughts:
AAPL - own it
GNK - possible H&S when I step back and look at the 3 yr chart
NIHD - breakout
XOM - ascending triangle (3 yr chart)
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